Signal Score
72
+1.8 (7d)
Total Volume
$48.8M
All markets
Active Traders
13,060
Unique participants
Avg Confidence
68%
High liquidity
Scenario Market Odds
Status Quo + Elevated Tension
$24.5M volumeConfidence: 85%
68%
-2.3pp
Blockade / Partial Blockade
$18.9M volumeConfidence: 78%
22%
+2.8pp
Limited Strike / Incident Spiral
$8.2M volumeConfidence: 62%
7%
-0.5pp
Full-Scale Attack
$3.1M volumeConfidence: 45%
3%
+0.0pp
Blockade Probability Trend
Daily Trading Volume
Volume by Platform
Polymarket
$42.3M
58%
Kalshi
$18.9M
26%
Manifold
$11.6M
16%
Weekly Trader Activity
Active Prediction Markets
Polymarket
Will China impose blockade on Taiwan before June 2026?
YES
28¢
NO
72¢
24h Volume
$487K
Total Volume
$12.4M
Liquidity
$2.1M
Traders
3,420
Updated 10:15 AM
+3.2%24h
Polymarket
Will there be military clash in Taiwan Strait in Q1 2026?
YES
15¢
NO
85¢
24h Volume
$312K
Total Volume
$8.9M
Liquidity
$1.5M
Traders
2,150
Updated 09:45 AM
+1.8%24h
Kalshi
Taiwan crisis escalation before March 2026
YES
22¢
NO
78¢
24h Volume
$156K
Total Volume
$5.6M
Liquidity
$980K
Traders
1,680
Updated 10:00 AM
-1.5%24h
Manifold
Status quo maintained through 2026
YES
68¢
NO
32¢
24h Volume
$98K
Total Volume
$3.2M
Liquidity
$650K
Traders
890
Updated 08:30 AM
-2.1%24h
Polymarket
US military intervention if China attacks Taiwan
YES
73¢
NO
27¢
24h Volume
$623K
Total Volume
$18.7M
Liquidity
$3.4M
Traders
4,920
Updated 10:20 AM
+0.8%24h
Market Intelligence Summary
Rising Blockade Probability
Prediction markets show 22% probability for blockade scenario, up 2.8pp over the past week. Polymarket volume surged +$487K in 24h.
High Trader Participation
Over 13,000 unique traders actively positioning on Taiwan scenarios, with institutional money flow indicating sophisticated risk assessment.
Deep Liquidity
Total liquidity across markets exceeds $8.5M, ensuring price discovery reflects genuine market consensus rather than manipulation.
Market Confidence Remains High
Average confidence level at 68% with strong correlation between volume and probability shifts, indicating informed trading.
Methodology
Market Odds Signal aggregates probabilities from real-money prediction markets where traders bet on outcomes.
- •Platforms: Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold Markets, and other regulated prediction markets
- •Price Discovery: Market prices reflect aggregate probability estimates from real-money traders
- •Weighting: Markets weighted by liquidity, volume, and trader count to ensure reliable signals
- •Updates: Real-time price feeds with continuous monitoring of odds movements
- •Confidence: Based on market depth, bid-ask spreads, and historical accuracy